China Caixin Composite PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY0.9

Actual:

52.3

Forecast: 51.4

Previous/Revision:

51.9

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 51.5

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China Caixin Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) measures the overall economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors in China. It focuses on production, new orders, employment, and prices, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. It is a national indicator.

Frequency

The China Caixin Composite PMI is released monthly, typically within the first week following the end of the reference month, and often includes preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

The China Caixin Composite PMI provides valuable insights into the economic activity and growth potential of the world’s second-largest economy, influencing global financial markets. Stronger-than-expected results are typically bullish for the Chinese yuan and stocks due to anticipated economic expansion, while weaker results may exert bearish pressure due to growth concerns.

What Is It Derived From?

The China Caixin Composite PMI is derived from surveys of purchasing managers across a broad range of manufacturing and service sectors. The survey results are compiled into a diffusion index, with respondents indicating improvement, deterioration, or no change in their business conditions.

Description

The China Caixin Composite PMI offers a snapshot of the underlying trends in China's economy, combining data from both the services and manufacturing PMIs to provide a comprehensive overview. Preliminary data often gives an early indication of economic conditions, while final reports provide more accurate and sometimes revised information as additional responses are taken into account. Financial markets may react more strongly to preliminary readings due to their timeliness, but any significant revisions in final data could impact economic forecasts and trading strategies.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the China Caixin Composite PMI anticipates changes in economic trends before they become evident in more comprehensive economic reports. It often correlates with broader global economic conditions, reflecting China's integral role in international trade and investment.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Chinese Yuan, Bullish for Chinese Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Chinese Yuan, Bearish for Chinese Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	52.3	51.4	51.9	0.9
Nov 05, 2024	51.9	50.6	50.3	1.3
Sep 30, 2024	50.3	50.5	51.2	-0.2
Sep 04, 2024	51.2	51	51.2	0.2
Aug 05, 2024	51.2	52.3	52.8	-1.1
Jul 03, 2024	52.8	53.6	54.1	-0.8
Jun 05, 2024	54.1	51.5	52.8	2.6
May 06, 2024	52.8	52.5	52.7	0.3
Apr 03, 2024	52.7	52.7	52.5
Mar 05, 2024	52.5	53.1	52.5	-0.6
Feb 05, 2024	52.5	52.6	52.6	-0.1
Jan 04, 2024	52.6	51.6	51.6	1
Dec 05, 2023	51.6	51.2	50	0.4
Nov 03, 2023	50	51	50.9	-1
Oct 01, 2023	50.9	53	51.7	-2.1
Sep 05, 2023	51.7	51.9	51.9	-0.2
Aug 03, 2023	51.9	51	52.5	0.9
Jul 05, 2023	52.5	55.1	55.6	-2.6
Jun 05, 2023	55.6	53.3	53.6	2.3
May 05, 2023	53.6	55	54.5	-1.4
Apr 06, 2023	54.5	54.5	54.2
Mar 03, 2023	54.2	52.5	51.1	1.7
Feb 03, 2023	51.1	52.8	48.3	-1.7
Jan 05, 2023	48.3	46	47	2.3
Dec 05, 2022	47	47	48.3
Nov 03, 2022	48.3	48.1	48.5	0.2
Oct 08, 2022	48.5	53.1	53	-4.6
Sep 05, 2022	53	50	54	3
Aug 03, 2022	54	55.7	55.3	-1.7
Jul 05, 2022	55.3	50	42.2	5.3
Jun 06, 2022	42.2	45	37.2	-2.8
May 05, 2022	37.2	43.8	43.9	-6.6
Apr 06, 2022	43.9	49	50.1	-5.1
Mar 03, 2022	50.1	50.8	50.1	-0.7
Feb 07, 2022	50.1	50.5	53	-0.4
Jan 06, 2022	53	51.3	51.2	1.7
Dec 03, 2021	51.2	51	51.5	0.2
Nov 03, 2021	51.5	51	51.4	0.5
Oct 08, 2021	51.4	49	47.2	2.4
Sep 03, 2021	47.2	52.9	53.1	-5.7
Aug 04, 2021	53.1	50.4	50.6	2.7
Jul 05, 2021	50.6	53.6	53.8	-3
Jun 03, 2021	53.8	54.3	54.7	-0.5
May 07, 2021	54.7	53.3	53.1	1.4
Apr 06, 2021	53.1	52.8	51.7	0.3
Mar 03, 2021	51.7	51.9	52.2	-0.2
Feb 03, 2021	52.2	55.4	55.8	-3.2
Jan 06, 2021	55.8	56.4	57.5	-0.6
Dec 03, 2020	57.5	55.4	55.7	2.1
Nov 04, 2020	55.7	54	54.5	1.7
Oct 09, 2020	54.5	54	55.1	0.5
Sep 03, 2020	55.1	54	54.5	1.1
Aug 05, 2020	54.5	55	55.7	-0.5
Jul 03, 2020	55.7	52.9	54.5	2.8
Jun 03, 2020	54.5	49.1	47.6	5.4
May 07, 2020	47.6	48.5	46.7	-0.9
Apr 03, 2020	46.7	42.5	27.5	4.2
Mar 04, 2020	27.5	47.2	51.9	-19.7
Feb 05, 2020	51.9	51.1	52.6	0.8
Jan 06, 2020	52.6	52.9	53.2	-0.3
Dec 04, 2019	53.2	51.2	52	2
Nov 05, 2019	52	51.1	51.9	0.9
Oct 08, 2019	51.9	52.7	51.6	-0.8
Sep 04, 2019	51.6	51.1	50.9	0.5
Aug 05, 2019	50.9	50.3	50.6	0.6
Jul 03, 2019	50.6	51.2	51.5	-0.6
Jun 05, 2019	51.5	52.4	52.7	-0.9
May 06, 2019	52.7	52.5	52.9	0.2
Apr 03, 2019	52.9	50	50.7	2.9
Mar 05, 2019	50.7	50.4	50.9	0.3
Feb 03, 2019	50.9	52	52.2	-1.1
Jan 04, 2019	52.2	50	51.9	2.2
Dec 05, 2018	51.9	50.5	50.5	1.4
Nov 05, 2018	50.5	51.9	52.1	-1.4
Oct 08, 2018	52.1	52.5	52	-0.4
Sep 05, 2018	52	52	52.3
Aug 03, 2018	52.3	51	53	1.3
Jul 04, 2018	53	51.7	52.3	1.3
Jun 05, 2018	52.3	52.2	52.3	0.1
May 04, 2018	52.3	50.5	51.8	1.8
Apr 04, 2018	51.8	53.1	53.3	-1.3
Mar 05, 2018	53.3	53.4	53.7	-0.1
Feb 05, 2018	53.7	52.9	53	0.8
Jan 04, 2018	53	51.7	51.6	1.3
Dec 05, 2017	51.6	51	51	0.6
Nov 03, 2017	51	51.4	51.4	-0.4
Oct 09, 2017	51.4	51	52.4	0.4
Sep 05, 2017	52.4	52.6	51.9	-0.2
Aug 03, 2017	51.9	51	51.1	0.9
Jul 05, 2017	51.1	51.3	51.5	-0.2
Jun 05, 2017	51.5	51	51.2	0.5
May 04, 2017	51.2	52.1	52.1	-0.9
Apr 06, 2017	52.1	52.8	52.6	-0.7
Mar 03, 2017	52.6	52	52.2	0.6
Feb 06, 2017	52.2	52.9	53.5	-0.7
Jan 05, 2017	53.5		52.9